Why forecasts beyond 2 days out change A LOT

Ok…I’ve been trolling the local ATL weather personalities Facebook pages and have seen also sorts of confidence of what is GOING TO happen Tuesday. This is why I mention stuff and don’t hype it up. The area in the circle is the upper level piece of energy that will be responsible for whatever happens on Tuesday. As you can see it’s located in the Gulf of Alaska. Any area that is not over land is data sparce regarding actual data sampling of the atmosphere. Basically what that means is the PREDICTED event on Tuesday is based on computer models that have pieces of energy over areas that are not samples to its maximum. Our piece of energy will not be over land until Sunday when it will be sampled properly. Often we see decent shift up until 2 days out and this is the reason. So anyone saying that their confidence is growing is basing that on energy that is minimally sampled. Personally I think the best course of action is to mention the potential and wait until maximum data is available before making any sort of irrational posts or predictions. More often than not this ends up being the best method.

Rant over.

Jason