Dahlonega Record High Temperature – February 7th

As I mentioned earlier yesterday, we had a shot at breaking both our record high and record warm low temps for Feb 7th. Well that happened as we topped out at 73.9 breaking the old record of 71 set back in 1927. Our low yesterday was 60.8 also breaking the record warm low temp of 54 set also back in 1927. The cold front has already moved through so we should be done with record warm temp threats for a while.

Dahlonega Weather Radar Update Tuesday 931a

The back edge of the precip is rapidly approaching. Needless to say our window of opportunity for snow is shrinking really fast. I wasn’t expecting Dahlonega to see anything until around 10a onward. But the precip is getting out of here quicker so if you see any flakes in the lower elevations, they will just be for looks and not for real accumulation. Again I’ll restate that I’m not expecting any black ice issues for 95 percent of us.

Jason

Dahlonega Weather Forecast Tuesday AM Update

Good Tuesday morning! Winter weather rain drops are upon us and more is on the way. Our fast moving weather system has the pedal to the metal as the back edge of the meaningful precip as already exited Alabama. Rain should change over to snow in the higher elevations above 2000 feet pretty quickly. After that it’s pretty much a crap shoot on timing as the moisture will be exiting quicker than earlier expected. If we do change over to snow here in the lower elevations I’m not expecting anything more than a dusting or so on grassy areas. Also I don’t think black ice will be a problem for 95 percent of us as the sun will come out this afternoon and the winds will pick up so things should dry out. The other 5 percent is for those extremely hard to dry out places where a few icy patches could develop this evening.

FYI…all this precip across north GA on the radar is falling in the form of snow from it’s origins about 7500 feet up. It’s the lower levels that need to cool off a bit before the flakes can actually make it to the ground before melting.

Sorry…this just isn’t our system.

Jason

Dahlonega Weather Forecast Tuesday Snow Update

Tomorrow is going to be frustrating to watch if your a snow fan in Dahlonega. The way this whole system is setting up, areas south east and east of the spine of the Apps will be the last places to change over to snow as the lowest level of the incoming cold air literally gets hung up on the mountains. From this models projected radar image for 10a Tuesday, you can see how the colder low level air banks up against the mountains and then drains around Dawson county and then south. Places like Cobb county near Atlanta will likely change to snow before the city of Dahlonega because of this. It is what it is and this was known about this setup thus the higher potential snow totals for places north and west of the mountains. By noon all the precip should be gone and the sun coming out so we have a tight window here in Dahlonega to get our snow.

If you need any other particulars please read my other post I made earlier this evening. Thanks for reading and updates will flow tomorrow as necessary.

Jason

Dahlonega Georgia Weather Forecast Update – Monday PM

Good Monday afternoon everyone!

This update will be only about our snow chance on Tuesday. If your looking for the rest of the week you will need to check out my update that I posted yesterday. I’ve attached the same snowfall map to this post that I created yesterday. A few things have changed since yesterday. Pretty much all the high resolution short range guidance has all but punted with this system. The large scale global models continue to display something similar to my projected snow map. This whole deal is already razor thin on the boom or bust factor. With that in mind I think we will end up on the lower end of the range in each shaded area. What that means is closer to a dusting versus 1 inch for the bulk of us and closer to 1-2 inches versus 3 for all the areas north and west.

One trend that has happened on all the models is to be just a tad warmer at the start of the precip. That could make the transition to snow take longer and we are already in a tight window of moisture opportunity. Truthfully I have to basically throw out the high res short range models completely in order for me to believe may snowfall map is even possible. I’ve seen some pretty big busts over the years and this has the potential to be one of those. And we are now under an official winter storm warning and schools have been cancelled. Ugg….

Also people have been asking me able black ice and I just don’t think that’s going to be an issue for 95 percent of us due to winds and afternoon sunshine. But those isolated shady spots could develop some ice by Tuesday night.

Here is the timing as I see it now. Rain starts in the form of drizzle and showers after midnight. By sunrise the band of moisture should be knocking on the door with our temps in the low 40s. Yep 40s. Rain should transition to snow between 9-10a and last until maybe noon. And that’s it. Accumulation will be difficult due to above freezing temps…unless your in the darker shaded areas.

Now remember…this is based on me completely ignoring pretty much all the short range models and that’s a scary thought personally. We shall see….

Now it’s basically just watch the radar out in Arkansas and Mississippi as the precip breaks out and slides east.

Jason