Just a quick update. So far everything has almost gone according to plan. Next up is the return of showers with potential snow mixed in or all snow above 2500 feet. While I’m not expecting any accumulation for 95 percent of us, there could be an inch or two along and north of the spine of the apps. Sound familiar?
The radar may look pathetic right now (as of 11p) but that will change rapidly over the next 2 hours. Precip should linger into the early morning hours.
So far everything as progressed as expected expect I never hit freezing last night. If you’ve got an accumulations of anything frozen let’s hear about it.
Good Saturday morning everyone!
So far everything has progressed as expected. We are in the midst of our chilly cold rain day so enjoy that. Yes we are now under a winter storm warning per the National Weather Service out of Peachtree City. If you carefully read the warning text you see they mostly reference places above 2500 getting the best accumulation which aligns with my thinking all along.
Brand now model guidance is hot off the press and not a whole lot has changed. I do believe the chance of seeing more widespread snow tonight has increased…just a tad. It still looks decent for places above 2000 feet and along and north of the spine of the apps. Places like Suches should end up with probably 2-4 inches.
Here is how I think things will progress.
Today will feature mostly just a cold rain that’s heavy at times. During the heavier periods of rain I would not be surprised if some snow flakes mix in all around the area. As we progress through the night our best chance to see widespread snow will be in the window from around 10p-2a as the upper levels just might be good enough to allow the precip to change over. Again this is for all areas of Dahlonega. Higher elevations should get accumulating snow as I described in the paragraph above. Snow or not for the majority of us there should be a period of sleet and or freezing rain lasting until mid Sunday morning. Now if the precip ends up being more sleet then roads could be an issue. If it ends up more freezing rain then personally I think they will be just wet.
Sunday will continue the mix bag precip as showers could mix with or change to snow at times with no accumulation expected below 2000 feet elevation. Oh and if you want to know your elevation, just download a gps status app on your phone and it will tell you.
The mixed bag precip will continue into Sunday night before everything finally exits on Monday. Now what I laid out is what I think is the most likely scenario to happen. Theres always potential for this to over perform. The latest GFS snow map displays what I think this could look like IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF it over performs and the system dynamics win out over the marginal upper level temps.
Also something that is useful is to download the mPing app on your phone and report your current conditions from time to time should the weather your experiencing change. It’s a cool and free app and you can see where it’s raining and or snowing based on ground reports.
Thanks for reading!
Good Friday evening everyone!
Today was a precursor to what a majority of our weekend will be like…chilly and wet. An area of low pressure will slide across the Gulf Coast this weekend while high pressure noses down the eastern slopes of the Apps locking in a wedge pattern which spells mostly just chilly and wet. I say mostly because we are likely to see a little bit of everything and a LOT OF RAIN.
Yes I know we are under a Winter Storm Watch but I’m not as enthusiastic as the weather service is regarding snow totals. I posted a long update yesterday and explained what I thought would happen as well as possibilities of what could happen. Since that post we’ve gone through 4 more cycles of updated computer model guidance. After digesting all the data and looking at all the various models I don’t feel inclined to alter the forecast a whole lot. I know there are plenty of very ambitious fantasy snow maps of which I’m am constantly shaking my head so please don’t believe most of those. The snow map I posted below is the latest projected amounts by a higher resolution short range model. Personally when I see this I think it better represents what is possible in north GA. As I stated yesterday the upper levels are going to be so marginal to support winter precip and snow and just a few degrees colder change from the surface to 10k feet up would make a huge difference. But I have not seen any trends towards that direction. Could that still change…yes. But so far it hasn’t.
So here is my best take on what I think is most likely to happen.
Saturday…cold rain with temps in the 30s.
Saturday night…cold rain changing to most likely sleet and or freezing rain after midnight. If its more sleet than driving conditions will be worse. If it’s more freezing rain just elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses will be a concern. There could also be some snow mixed in especially areas above 2000 feet. It’s going to be windy also with gusts to near 30 mph.
Sunday…mixed bag precip changing back over to rain or rain snow mix. Best snow chance is above 2000 feet especially areas along and north of the spine of the apps.
Sunday into Monday…rain or rain snow or snow showers persist. It’s that marginal so it’s next to impossible to say exactly what it will be. High elevations will be more snow for sure.
I’m expecting 1-3 inches of snow above 2000 feet in elevation with dusting to just token flakes falling from the sky for everyone else.
So there you have it. Things can still trend for more winter precip. so I’ll be still watching everything closely.
Thanks for reading!
Good Thursday afternoon everyone!
My oh my what a difficult forecast we have in store. Needless to say there is a lot of hype around this early season weather system on the way this weekend. Unfortunately with it being so early in the winter, frozen precip conditions are not as strong which just adds to the difficulty in nailing down any sort of forecast. We have all things in store of us and so to try and simplify this I’ll just break out each part on it’s own.
Rain – Lots of liquid precip is on the way. Starting early Saturday the rain will move in and will be heavy at times. Expect 2-3 inches to be the common theme as you can see by just the Euro models expected precip. Pretty much all computer guidance suggests the same thing regarding rain amounts.
Freezing Rain and Sleet – towards sunrise Sunday morning the upper levels will start to cool off dramatically which will likely give us a period of sleet and or freezing rain lasting into the late AM hours. Amounts are up in the air and likely impacts are the normal elevated surfaces and bridges. If it’s more sleet (which it could be) then all the roads could become an issue. If it’s just freezing rain then impacts should be much less as asphalt should be just wet.
Snow – As the system moves off to our east, wrap around moisture will return across the area Sunday night into parts of Monday. By then the upper levels should be able to support snow falling. But surface temps will likely be above freezing at that time so the flakes will likely be more of a novelty than impactful…unless….you live above 2000 feet and all places along and north of the spine of the Apps. I would expect 1-2 inches in those locations. Places like Suches to Blairsville, etc.
Wind – Saturday night will be come quite windy as the pressure gradient between the low tracking along the Gulf and high pressure up in the NE tightens. Expect gusts over 30mph out of the east. Yep…east wind wedge.
Temps – Just chilly with highs in the 30s Saturday and Sunday and probably Monday too.
So a quick recap of the best thinking at this time. Rain moves in Saturday morning and lasts all day and into Saturday night. Early Sunday morning rain likely transitions to freezing rain or sleet or both lasting until late AM hours Sunday. Then Sunday afternoon is just spotty showers persist. Sunday night into Monday moisture returns in the form of snow or rain/snow mix lasting through the first half of Monday.
Bust potential….There is so much bust potential in either direction with this system. Just a 3-4 degree swing in the temperature column between the surface and 10,000 feet up could completely change the game big time. Colder obviously means more winter precip. Needless I’m wasting way too many hours looking at model guidance runs. Even though I’m not posting very often I’m all over this system. Oh and please don’t get caught up in all those crazy snow maps that keep popping up on the internet. There are no many flaws with those maps and how they are produced I don’t have time to go into all that right now. LOL.
Thanks for reading and updates will continue as needed.
Good Tuesday evening everyone!
I’ll just cut to the chase and talk about the only topic to discuss right now. As I’m sure most of you have already heard, there are rumors around of a potential winter storm that could affect our area over the weekend. Well anyone who has been following me for any length of time knows I just about don’t talk about stuff beyond the day 5 time frame as that is what I call fantasy land. Once a system moves into the 3-5 day time frame it has migrated into the realm of possibility. Well we have a system to track. But but but…this may not be our system. We will get rain…and lots of it. The big question is will we get any winter precip. That’s the real challenge for us.
This system will be marginal for us to get winter weather as the models have been consistently showing the highest threat of accumulating snow or anything else frozen being places to our NE. If you want the real jackpot for this storm then take a trip to far NW NC mountains. We are so borderline here it’s just about impossible at this time to say whether or not we will get anything besides a cold rain. Higher elevations above 2000 feet stand the best chance of getting any snow at this time. We are still looking at a Saturday start time for the rain so this deal is still a ways off and the forecast will likely change. As it stands now the best guess is for rain on Saturday possibly mixing with snow early Saturday night before turning back over to rain or possibly rain and sleet. As the system pulls off to our east on Sunday, wrap around moisture could bring some light snow or rain snow.
Best chance for any accumulations will be the highest elevations along and north of the spine of the apps. This system is just as close to being a decent snow for us as it is just being a cold rain. Snow supporting upper level temps are super marginal right now. This is going to be a major snow maker for parts of NC and very close to parts of NE GA so I will be tracking this system super close. Just ask my wife as I’m always on my phone looking at the new data as it arrives. LOL.
Stand tuned as updates will be coming more frequent as this dynamic system gets closer to go time.
Heavy showers with thunder knocking on the door.
Welcome to Winter!!!
Chilly is an understatement. We failed to hit 42 during the day as we head down into the upper 20s tonight. Wintertime temperatures are upon us in full force. The cold air is going to be reinforced tomorrow (Tuesday) giving us our coldest day thus far in the season. Expect chilly below normal temps through the rest of this week. As the upper levels relax a bit towards Friday, rain chances go back up as do the temperatures as we head into the weekend. Hey I also would not be surprised if someone saw some rogue snow flakes this evening especially areas along and north of the spine of the apps. Welcome to Winter 2018/2019!
Here are the details of the forecast…
Tonight…cold and breezy with a low in the upper 20s.
Tuesday…chilly and breezy with a high only in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night…continued cold with a steady breeze. Low in the mid 20s.
Wednesday…sunny and still chilly with a high in the low 40s.
Wednesday night…mostly clear and still chilly with a low near 30.
Thursday…increasing clouds with a chance of rain late afternoon or evening. High in the low 50s.
Right now Friday and Saturday could be wet as a front stalls out to our NW and allows multiple pieces of energy to move NE along the front bringing with them…rain. More details on that later.
Thanks for reading and bundle up!
Rain is moving in quicker than anticipated. Will likely be across the area by 5pm or quicker.