Wednesday Dahlonega Weather Forecast Update…*** Snow Possible then Much Colder ***

Happy Wednesday everyone!

Well the current hot topic is the potential for accumulating snow.  In all honesty this has been a very frustrating system to track because guidance has been meager at best.  Even after this mornings model runs there still remains a pretty high degree of uncertainty as solutions are all over the place.

The energy that will be responsible for our weather system is currently sitting off the coast of Oregon.  Upper level energy will be diving south out of Canada and will sort of grab the other piece and drop it south into the plains.  As the Oregon piece of upper level energy rounds the bottom of the upper level trough through Oklahoma and Arkansas, it should spark development of a weak area of low pressure in the Gulf that will spread moisture across the south.  Upper level temps will be cold enough in Dahlonega that any precip that does fall should be in the form of snow.

The only question mark is how much precip do we actually get.  That is the million dollar question.  The best guidance available suggestions anywhere between .15 to .40 inches of liquid equivalent.  Now if the forecast was for rain no one would care about those small amounts but since the precip should be in the form of snow, those amount differences are significant.  .15 inches would give about an inch or more of snow while .40 would give close to 4 inches.  Four is a much higher impact than one.  And then on the worst side of model guidance there are some that suggest we get absolutely nothing.  For this forecast I’m throwing those out.

The other issue with this system is the high bust potential for much more or nothing.  If the Oregon energy gets completely absorbed into the upper level trough then it pretty much shreds our weather system to bits and we end up with next to nothing if not nothing.  The margin for error is so small that just a 100 mile shift to the north or south with the track of this energy at 25k feet will make the difference between us getting nothing to us getting a major winter storm.  So there will likely be more tweaks to this forecast on Thursday and on Friday.

With all that in mind I’m officially calling for 1-2 inches of snow Friday night but keep in mind that our margin of error is so small that the entire threat could evaporate should the upper levels change.

Thanks for reading and cross your fingers!!!

Jason

36 thoughts on “Wednesday Dahlonega Weather Forecast Update…*** Snow Possible then Much Colder ***”

    2. Andy Smith

      I’m just worried in how some of the models show such a sharp cutoff in the moisture in NW GA. If that cutoff moves eastward then all of the snow may be to our east.

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