Good Saturday morning everyone!
Just wanted to post another update from my post on Friday regarding the severe weather threat on Sunday. Not a ton has changed but it is becoming more clear how tomorrow will unfold. Overnight tonight (Saturday night) a line of strong thunderstorms will track across Alabama. As the line enters GA it should start to weaken as this line is way out ahead of the cold front. It should arrive in our area somewhere near the 10-11a hour (give or take) on Sunday. Then a new line will develop during the afternoon across northern Alabama and strengthen as it crosses northern GA. This should align when the severe supporting weather parameters are maxing out. So if anything I would say the severe threat has gone up just a tad.
The map I shared is the computer model generated STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index. It’s basically a measure of different sorts of atmospheric conditions all mashed up together to come up with an index number. The higher the number the more favorable conditions for severe weather and tornadoes. Anything over 1 and you need to pay attention to the weather. For us this latest run of the NAM is suggesting an index value between 2-3 (give or take). What this all means is that we basically need to pay attention closely to the radar come Sunday afternoon. My thinking is highest threat for severe will occur in the 4p to 7p window. After that the front will move through and it will be all over.
So to recap, you weather watchers out there will see a strong line of storms tracking across AL tonight towards GA in the early AM. It should weaken as it reaches our area towards 10-11am. Then a new line will develop across northern AL early afternoon (Sunday) and strengthen as it tracks across north GA reaching us between the 4p-7p time window. Primary threat will be strong winds and hail. Tornado risk will also be present and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we end up under a tornado watch tomorrow afternoon.
With that in mind, enjoy today as showers will be few and far between.
Thanks for reading!